The Fourth Turning and Historical Tempo: Are We Off-Beat?

William Strauss and Neil Howe's generational theory proposes that history moves in 80-90 year cycles, divided into four "turnings" of roughly 20-25 years each. We're allegedly in a Fourth Turning—the crisis period that reshapes institutions.

The theory has problems. But it points to something real: history has tempo, and we may be experiencing temporal desynchronization.

The Four Turnings Framework

First Turning (High): Post-crisis renewal, strong institutions, conformity

Second Turning (Awakening): Spiritual renewal, institutional questioning, individualism

Third Turning (Unraveling): Weakening institutions, strengthening individualism, pre-crisis

Fourth Turning (Crisis): Institutional destruction/reconstruction, collective action, resolution

The pattern allegedly repeats:

• 1945-1965: High (post-WWII consensus)
• 1965-1985: Awakening (counterculture, social movements)
• 1985-2008: Unraveling (culture wars, institutional decay)
• 2008-2030?: Crisis (financial collapse, political upheaval, institutional reconstruction)

If the pattern holds, we're mid-crisis, approaching resolution and new institutional settlement around 2030.

Where the Theory Works

Generational cohorts do show consistent patterns:

Crisis generations (born during Fourth Turnings): Civic-minded, institutional, conformist

• Greatest Generation (born 1900s-1920s)
• Millennials (born 1980s-2000s)

Awakening generations (born during Second Turnings): Individualistic, values-driven, institutional skeptics

• Boomers (born 1940s-1960s)
• Hypothetical future generation (born 2020s-2040s)

The theory predicts generational characteristics surprisingly well. Where it struggles is timing and causation.

Temporal Desynchronization

The framework assumes 80-90 year cycles because that's roughly a human lifespan—each generation experiences all four turnings, then dies before the cycle repeats.

But several factors are disrupting this rhythm:

Extended lifespans: People now live 80+ years routinely. Boomers are still politically active into what should be the resolution of a Fourth Turning. This creates temporal collision—the awakening generation is still shaping events during what should be a crisis generation's time.

Accelerated information: Previous turnings moved at the speed of print media and physical travel. Now information propagates instantly. Does this compress turnings? Extend them? Change their character?

Delayed adulthood: Millennials reached economic independence later than previous generations. Does this shift the generational timeline? Do millennials behave like a crisis generation on schedule, or are they off-tempo?

Globalization: Previous turnings were national or regional. Now events cascade globally. But different regions are in different turnings. Does this create interference patterns?

The 2008-2030 Crisis Turning

If we're in a Fourth Turning starting around 2008, we should expect:

Institutional reconstruction: Old institutions discredited, new ones built

• Status: Institutions are being questioned, but reconstruction isn't clearly happening

Generational unity: Crisis generation (Millennials) provides civic leadership

• Status: Mixed. Millennial political power is growing but not dominant

Clear external threat: Crisis turnings typically involve war or major external challenge

• Status: Unclear. Climate? Great power competition? Pandemic was real but not sustained enough?

Resolution and new consensus: By ~2030, new institutional settlement

• Status: No sign of emerging consensus yet

Either we're mid-crisis with resolution ahead, or the pattern isn't holding.

Alternative Hypothesis: The Long Fourth Turning

What if turnings aren't fixed duration? What if complexity extends them?

Previous Fourth Turnings:

• American Revolution: ~1775-1795 (20 years)
• Civil War: ~1860-1880 (20 years)
• Great Depression/WWII: ~1929-1946 (17 years)

Current Fourth Turning: 2008-? (already 17 years, no resolution in sight)

Perhaps we're experiencing a longer, more complex Fourth Turning because:

• Global rather than national scope
• Multiple overlapping crises rather than single focus
• Extended lifespans mean generational transitions take longer
• Information acceleration creates rapid cycling within the turning

Historical Parallels Worth Examining

Thirty Years' War (1618-1648)

A crisis period that lasted an entire generation:

• Started as religious conflict
• Became great power competition
• Devastated central Europe
• Ended with new institutional settlement (Westphalian sovereignty)

Duration: 30 years—longer than typical Fourth Turnings.

Could we be in an analogous extended crisis? 2008-2038?

Crisis of the Third Century (235-284 CE)

Roman Empire experienced 50 years of:

• Political instability (50+ emperors)
• Economic disruption
• External threats
• Institutional breakdown

Resolved by Diocletian's reforms creating new institutional structure.

Duration: 50 years—far longer than standard turning.

When systems are sufficiently complex, crisis resolution takes longer.

Practical Implications

If we're in an extended Fourth Turning (2008-2030s):

Expect continued instability: Resolution isn't imminent. We're possibly midway through.

Watch for institutional experiments: New structures are being built now. Most will fail. Some will form the basis of post-crisis order.

Generational timeline shifts: Millennials should be assuming leadership. But Boomers aren't yielding. This creates temporal tension—two generations trying to lead simultaneously.

Multiple crisis peaks: Rather than single climax (1945, 1865, 1783), expect multiple major disruptions before resolution.

Geographic variation: Different regions may resolve at different times. US, Europe, Asia may exit crisis-mode asynchronously.

Where the Theory Breaks

Strauss-Howe assumes cycles are autonomous—they generate themselves through generational succession. But:

External shocks matter: Climate change, nuclear weapons, AI—these are outside the generational cycle but affect timing and character.

Structural changes matter: Energy transitions, technological revolutions, demographic shifts operate on different timescales than 80-year cycles.

Agency matters: Humans aren't automatons following scripted generational roles. Conscious choice can break patterns.

The theory is a framework, not a law.

What to Watch

Indicators we're approaching Fourth Turning resolution:

Institutional crystallization: New structures gaining legitimacy and stability

Generational transition: Millennials dominant in leadership, Gen Z entering adulthood with clear civic identity

Narrative convergence: Shared story about what happened and why

Reduced uncertainty: Clear understanding of new rules, structures, expectations

We're not there yet. Which suggests either:

1. Resolution is still ahead (2030s)
2. The pattern isn't holding
3. We're in a longer, more complex variant

Conclusion

Historical tempo is real. Societies do move through periods of construction, questioning, unraveling, and crisis. The 80-90 year cycle captures something genuine about generational succession and institutional evolution.

But tempo can desynchronize. Extended lifespans, accelerated information, increased complexity may be creating a longer, stranger Fourth Turning than the pattern predicts.

If so, we're not late in the crisis—we're in the middle. Expect continued turbulence, institutional experimentation, and uncertainty for another decade or more.

The pattern provides orientation, not prediction. We're in transformation. How long it takes and what emerges depends on choices being made now.